PoliticsResolved
Saxony-Anhalt state election: Will the AfD win more than 40% of the party-list vote?
Saxony-Anhalt votes on September 6. In May, Infratest dimap had the AfD at 41%—double its 2021 result. Will it actually break the 40% mark on election night, or will the polling high remain theoretical?
Yes probability84 Prozent
Probability history
| Time | Value |
|---|---|
| 07/09/2026 | 45 % |
| 07/10/2026 | 47 % |
| 07/10/2026 | 41 % |
| 07/10/2026 | 49 % |
| 07/10/2026 | 66 % |
| 07/10/2026 | 46 % |
| 07/10/2026 | 27 % |
| 07/13/2026 | 36 % |
| 07/15/2026 | 91 % |
| 07/15/2026 | 72 % |
| 07/16/2026 | 74 % |
| 07/22/2026 | 96 % |
| 07/28/2026 | 97 % |
| 07/28/2026 | 50 % |
| 07/28/2026 | 64 % |
| 07/29/2026 | 74 % |
| 07/29/2026 | 81 % |
| 07/29/2026 | 87 % |
| 08/12/2026 | 56 % |
| 08/16/2026 | 59 % |
| 08/18/2026 | 62 % |
| 08/25/2026 | 63 % |
| 08/27/2026 | 68 % |
| 08/28/2026 | 63 % |
| 08/31/2026 | 66 % |
| 08/31/2026 | 67 % |
| 08/31/2026 | 70 % |
| 09/01/2026 | 47 % |
| 09/02/2026 | 64 % |
| 09/02/2026 | 76 % |
| 09/02/2026 | 79 % |
| 09/04/2026 | 86 % |
| 09/04/2026 | 88 % |
| 09/06/2026 | 81 % |
| 09/06/2026 | 88 % |
| 09/06/2026 | 84 % |
Related news
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Resolution rule
YES if, according to the preliminary official final result of the state election on September 6, 2026, the AfD receives strictly more than 40.0% of the party-list vote (Landesstimmen). Exactly 40.0% or less = NO.
Source: Saxony-Anhalt State Returning Officer (wahlen.sachsen-anhalt.de)
- Prediction deadline
- 09/06/2026
- Resolution by
- 09/08/2026
- Starting probability
- 45 %
- Status
- Resolved
Who predicts what?
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