PoliticsClosed
Will the AfD be the strongest party in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election?
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern votes on September 20. Latest INSA poll (June): AfD 35%, SPD of Minister-President Schwesig 28%. Will the lead hold until election day?
Yes probability80 Prozent
Probability history
| Time | Value |
|---|---|
| 07/09/2026 | 82 % |
| 07/13/2026 | 83 % |
| 07/15/2026 | 84 % |
| 07/16/2026 | 89 % |
| 07/17/2026 | 92 % |
| 07/28/2026 | 96 % |
| 07/28/2026 | 97 % |
| 07/28/2026 | 50 % |
| 07/28/2026 | 74 % |
| 08/07/2026 | 87 % |
| 08/12/2026 | 64 % |
| 08/18/2026 | 69 % |
| 08/24/2026 | 73 % |
| 08/24/2026 | 75 % |
| 08/27/2026 | 79 % |
| 08/31/2026 | 80 % |
| 09/01/2026 | 69 % |
| 09/03/2026 | 68 % |
| 09/04/2026 | 69 % |
| 09/04/2026 | 71 % |
| 09/07/2026 | 73 % |
| 09/07/2026 | 71 % |
| 09/08/2026 | 75 % |
| 09/16/2026 | 83 % |
| 09/19/2026 | 80 % |
Related news
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Resolution rule
YES if, according to the preliminary official final result of the state election on September 20, 2026, the AfD receives the highest share of second votes of all parties. Otherwise NO.
Source: State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern
- Prediction deadline
- 09/20/2026
- Resolution by
- 09/22/2026
- Starting probability
- 82 %
- Status
- Closed
Who predicts what?
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