PoliticsOpen
Will Manuela Schwesig remain Minister-President of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern after the state election?
Even if the AfD wins the most seats, without a coalition partner Schwesig could continue governing with an alliance excluding the AfD. Will she be reelected by the state parliament in Schwerin?
Yes probability46 Prozent
Probability history
| Time | Value |
|---|---|
| 07/09/2026 | 45 % |
| 07/12/2026 | 50 % |
| 07/13/2026 | 45 % |
| 07/19/2026 | 50 % |
| 07/28/2026 | 96 % |
| 08/07/2026 | 98 % |
| 08/13/2026 | 70 % |
| 08/18/2026 | 71 % |
| 08/18/2026 | 72 % |
| 08/27/2026 | 74 % |
| 09/01/2026 | 63 % |
| 09/07/2026 | 54 % |
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Resolution rule
YES if Manuela Schwesig is elected (again) as Minister-President by the new state parliament following the state election on 20.09.2026—no later than 31.03.2027. NO if another person is elected by then or Schwesig does not run.
Source: Mecklenburg-Vorpommern State Parliament (landtag-mv.de); dpa reports on the Minister-President election
- Prediction deadline
- 03/31/2027
- Resolution by
- 03/31/2027
- Starting probability
- 55 %
- Status
- Open
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