PoliticsClosed
Will the CDU be the largest party in the Berlin House of Representatives election?
Berlin will hold a new election on September 20. Kai Wegner's CDU leads in the polls—but the Left, Greens, SPD, and AfD are close behind, and according to polls, the CDU-SPD coalition no longer has a majority.
Yes probability22 Prozent
Probability history
| Time | Value |
|---|---|
| 07/09/2026 | 45 % |
| 07/13/2026 | 50 % |
| 07/14/2026 | 55 % |
| 07/28/2026 | 33 % |
| 07/28/2026 | 95 % |
| 08/13/2026 | 66 % |
| 08/17/2026 | 68 % |
| 09/02/2026 | 78 % |
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Resolution rule
YES, if the CDU receives the highest share of second votes in the preliminary official final result of the election to the House of Representatives on September 20, 2026. Otherwise NO.
Source: Berlin State Election Authority (wahlen-berlin.de)
- Prediction deadline
- 09/20/2026
- Resolution by
- 09/22/2026
- Starting probability
- 55 %
- Status
- Closed
Who predicts what?
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