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US midterms: Will Democrats win the majority in the House of Representatives?
On November 3, the entire US House of Representatives is up for election. Historically, the president's party almost always loses seats in the midterms—but will that be enough to shift the majority this time?
Yes probability82 Prozent
Probability history
| Time | Value |
|---|---|
| 07/09/2026 | 68 % |
| 07/09/2026 | 70 % |
| 07/09/2026 | 91 % |
| 07/10/2026 | 89 % |
| 07/13/2026 | 81 % |
| 07/15/2026 | 83 % |
| 07/16/2026 | 84 % |
| 07/17/2026 | 77 % |
| 07/28/2026 | 79 % |
| 07/28/2026 | 87 % |
| 07/28/2026 | 32 % |
| 07/29/2026 | 12 % |
| 07/29/2026 | 7 % |
| 07/31/2026 | 66 % |
| 08/07/2026 | 99 % |
| 08/18/2026 | 76 % |
| 08/18/2026 | 73 % |
| 08/24/2026 | 75 % |
| 09/02/2026 | 79 % |
| 09/08/2026 | 80 % |
| 09/23/2026 | 82 % |
Related news
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Resolution rule
YES if the Democratic Party wins at least 218 seats in the US House of Representatives following the November 3, 2026 elections (based on AP projections for all races; if disputed, certified final results). Otherwise, NO.
Source: apnews.com (AP Race Calls)
- Prediction deadline
- 11/04/2026
- Resolution by
- 12/15/2026
- Starting probability
- 68 %
- Status
- Open
Who predicts what?
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