Wie viel Prozent holt die AfD in der nächsten Bundestags-Umfrage?

Distributioni

Predictions

3

Total pool

120.00 Play Money

Data source: dawum.de

Resolution rulei

Automatische Auflösung über die Datenquelle „dawum“.

Source: dawum.de (ODbL)

Prediction deadline

07/22/2026

Resolution by

07/22/2026

Status

Resolved

Context

• YouGov, 14.07.202627 %
• Forsa, 14.07.202626 %
• INSA, 14.07.202628,5 %
• Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, 17.07.202627 %
• INSA, 18.07.202629 %

How does a scale prediction work?

For a scale prediction, enter a number such as a temperature or price. All prediction amounts in the market go into one pool.

After resolution, the pool is distributed: the closer your prediction is to the actual number, the more you receive. Far-away predictions receive almost nothing. At equal distance, a larger prediction amount increases your return.

Example: 3 players with 100 Play Money each

Three players predict “How hot will it be today?” and use 100 Play Money each, making a pool of 300 Play Money. The actual temperature is 29°C.

Anna is exactly right and receives the most, Ben is 2 degrees away and receives less, and Carla is far away and receives nothing. A rounding remainder of 1 Play Money goes to the bank.

Important: predictions are binding. You cannot change or withdraw them. Your Play Money stays in the pool until resolution. If a market is voided, your prediction amount is fully refunded.