Will the political barrier to the German right AFD fall?
The CDU has so far ruled out cooperation with the AfD through a party convention resolution, the so-called “firewall.” This position is being debated within the party: Saxony’s Minister-President Michael Kretschmer wants to end the debate and talk with parties willing to engage, while party leader Friedrich Merz points to the existing resolutions and wants to uphold them. State elections are also scheduled in Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania in September 2026. This question tracks whether the CDU officially lifts its firewall against the AfD by the end of September 2026.
Probability history
| Time | Value |
|---|---|
| 07/27/2026 | 23 % |
| 07/27/2026 | 30 % |
| 07/27/2026 | 18 % |
| 07/27/2026 | 9 % |
| 07/27/2026 | 7 % |
| 07/27/2026 | 44 % |
| 07/27/2026 | 66 % |
| 07/27/2026 | 98 % |
| 07/27/2026 | 99 % |
| 07/27/2026 | 14 % |
| 07/27/2026 | 1 % |
| 07/27/2026 | 40 % |
| 07/27/2026 | 92 % |
| 07/27/2026 | 56 % |
| 07/27/2026 | 21 % |
| 07/27/2026 | 52 % |
| 07/27/2026 | 31 % |
| 07/27/2026 | 29 % |
| 07/27/2026 | 90 % |
| 07/28/2026 | 91 % |
| 07/28/2026 | 6 % |
| 07/28/2026 | 3 % |
| 07/29/2026 | 3 % |
| 07/29/2026 | 64 % |
| 07/30/2026 | 78 % |
| 07/30/2026 | 87 % |
| 07/31/2026 | 12 % |
| 08/05/2026 | 46 % |
| 08/05/2026 | 67 % |
| 08/11/2026 | 56 % |
| 08/14/2026 | 59 % |
| 08/17/2026 | 57 % |
| 08/17/2026 | 60 % |
| 08/18/2026 | 56 % |
| 08/18/2026 | 52 % |
| 08/21/2026 | 55 % |
| 08/24/2026 | 53 % |
| 08/26/2026 | 51 % |
| 08/26/2026 | 53 % |
| 08/27/2026 | 56 % |
| 08/31/2026 | 54 % |
| 08/31/2026 | 52 % |
| 08/31/2026 | 53 % |
| 09/01/2026 | 49 % |
| 09/02/2026 | 39 % |
| 09/04/2026 | 38 % |
| 09/04/2026 | 36 % |
| 09/04/2026 | 45 % |
| 09/07/2026 | 39 % |
| 09/07/2026 | 25 % |
| 09/08/2026 | 45 % |
| 09/14/2026 | 45 % |
| 09/16/2026 | 53 % |
| 09/23/2026 | 60 % |
| 09/24/2026 | 55 % |
Related news
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Resolution rule
“Yes” resolves if, by September 30, 2026 (11:59 p.m.), an official CDU party convention resolution at the federal or state level, or an equivalent decision, repeals the existing incompatibility resolution regarding the AfD or expressly permits cooperation with the AfD. “No” resolves if no such resolution has been adopted by that time.
Source: Official CDU press releases (cdu.de), as well as reports from bild.de, tagesschau.de, or two other media outlets.
Data source: www.bild.de/politik/inland/die-reformen-reichen-nicht-cdu-landeschef-gibt-kretschmer-recht
- Prediction deadline
- 09/28/2026
- Resolution by
- 10/01/2026
- Starting probability
- 23 %
- Status
- Closed
Who predicts what?
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