Will Iran and the US agree to a new formal ceasefire by the end of August 2026?
The 2026 Iran war began with US strikes; an initial two-week ceasefire in April failed. Since then, conflicts over the Strait of Hormuz and the broader region have continued to simmer. Diplomatic channels through Qatar and the UN remain active, but without a concrete result.
Probability history
| Time | Value |
|---|---|
| 07/27/2026 | 28 % |
| 07/27/2026 | 17 % |
| 07/27/2026 | 12 % |
| 07/27/2026 | 4 % |
| 07/27/2026 | 92 % |
| 07/27/2026 | 34 % |
| 07/27/2026 | 76 % |
| 07/27/2026 | 28 % |
| 07/28/2026 | 35 % |
| 07/28/2026 | 60 % |
| 07/29/2026 | 37 % |
| 08/18/2026 | 52 % |
Related news
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Resolution rule
Resolves Yes if, by August 31, 2026 (11:59 PM), a new ceasefire agreement between Iran and the US—either direct or through intermediaries—is announced and officially confirmed by both sides. Resolves No if no such agreement is reached.
Source: Official statement from the US Department of State (state.gov), the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, or the UN Security Council
Data source: www.bild.de/politik/ausland-und-internationales/iran-darum-greift-donald-trump-ploetzlich-die-mullahs-nicht-mehr-an
- Prediction deadline
- 08/29/2026
- Resolution by
- 09/01/2026
- Starting probability
- 28 %
- Status
- Resolved
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