Will the Trump-Zelenskyy talks lead to an officially announced ceasefire framework by the end of August?
US President Trump will host Ukrainian President Zelenskyy at the White House on July 28, 2026. Shortly beforehand, Ukraine carried out a record drone attack on Moscow involving more than 390 drones. At the same time, the Pentagon is reviewing a reduction in the US troop presence in Europe.
Probability history
| Time | Value |
|---|---|
| 07/28/2026 | 15 % |
| 07/29/2026 | 93 % |
| 08/16/2026 | 55 % |
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Resolution rule
Will the US, Ukraine, or an international body (e.g., the UN or EU) officially announce a concrete ceasefire framework or an agreed roadmap for ending hostilities in Ukraine by August 31, 2026? Resolution: Yes if there is an official joint statement. No if no such document is published.
Source: Reuters, tagesschau.de/ausland, or official White House press releases (whitehouse.gov)
- Prediction deadline
- 08/30/2026
- Resolution by
- 09/06/2026
- Starting probability
- 15 %
- Status
- Resolved
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