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Will Kimi Antonelli become the 2026 Formula 1 World Champion?
19-year-old Mercedes driver Kimi Antonelli leads the 2026 Drivers' Championship by around 50 points over his nearest rival. As the youngest championship leader of this generation, he is the clear favorite—but half the season still remains.
Yes probability45 Prozent
Probability history
| Time | Value |
|---|---|
| 07/28/2026 | 33 % |
| 07/29/2026 | 2 % |
| 07/29/2026 | 92 % |
| 09/06/2026 | 55 % |
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Resolution rule
Resolves Yes if Kimi Antonelli finishes first in the official FIA Drivers' Championship standings at the end of the 2026 Formula 1 season. Resolves No for any other final result.
Source: Official FIA results after the final race of the 2026 season (fia.com / formula1.com)
- Prediction deadline
- 11/02/2026
- Resolution by
- 12/01/2026
- Starting probability
- 67 %
- Status
- Open
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